TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AND CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA.

AND, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT!

ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 11:30 AM WEDNESDAY, 14 SEPTEMBER 2022, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.

IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE FULL IMPACTS OF THE SYSTEM, IF ANY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY. HOWEVER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY ON FRIDAY AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE, IT POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND MINOR DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.

AT 11 AM, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND, AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO OF THE ISLANDS BEING AFFECTED BY STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR FLOODING FROM POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES. NOTWITHSTANDING, IT IS A BIT EARLY TO SAY, WITH HIGH CERTAINTY, THE EVENTUAL PATH, SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AND HENCE, THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS, IF ANY. A FEW MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM PASSING NORTH SIMILAR TO EARL.

NOTE THAT THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IF CALLED UPON TO DO SO. THE THREAT IS MINOR, AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN

8AM UPDATE: DMCA Closely Monitors Tropical Disturbance AL96 located 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles with a High Chance of development as it tracks westward!

Yellow Hill – Wednesday, 13 September 2022 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is closely monitoring Tropical Disturbance AL96 located 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles with a 70% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 70% chance of development in the next five days.

At this time, no watches or warnings issued for Montserrat. We are still awaiting the latest update from the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services this morning.

In the 8AM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance AL96 located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have persisted overnight and are showing signs of organization. Although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional development, only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression. The system is forecast to move generally westward over the tropical Atlantic during the next day or so, and move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands Friday and Friday night. Regardless of development, the system is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands which include Montserrat Friday through Saturday. Interests in the Leeward Islands, including Montserrat
should monitor the progress of this system.

In a tropical Cyclone Statement issued on Tuesday, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services states that Tropical Disturbance AL96 has the potential to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm in five days and impact the islands which include Montserrat and residents should closely and have their hurricane season plans prepared, in the event that they are required to safeguard life, property and livelihood.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL96, and provide regular updates as information is released from the Antigua Met Services.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE (TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM) IN FIVE DAYS AND IMPACT THE ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT!

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES SAYS ITS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 ISSUED IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT TODAY TUESDAY, 13 SEPTEMBER 2022.

THE STATEMENT SAYS GIVEN THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER AL96 WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA AND EVEN HIGHER UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE, IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP INTO A STORM, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACTLY WILL BECOME OF THIS SYSTEM, AT THIS TIME. AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, DISTURBANCE AL96 POSES LITTLE OR MINIMAL THREAT, BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE AND AN ALERT MAY BE REQUIRED IN A DAY OR TWO. TO BE SAFE, HAVE YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN PREPARED AND MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

AT 11 AM, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1121 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH THURSDAY IS 30 PERCENT AND FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY IS 40 PERCENT.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM COULD BE IN THE AREA ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. MORE OR LESS WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL INTENSITY, SIZE AND TRACK.

PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL96 CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED, IN THE EVENT THAT THEY ARE REQUIRED TO SAFEGUARD LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.

AN UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING, OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN

8AM UPDATE: DMCA continues to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1 (Orange) midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands with a Medium Chance of development over the next 5 days as it tracks westward to west-northwestward!

Yellow Hill – Tuesday, 13 September 2022 – The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is monitoring Tropical Disturbance 1 (orange) located midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands now has a 40% chance of development in 5 days and a low chance in 48 hrs. The other Disturbance has a low chance of formation in 5 days. At this time, none of the systems poses an immediate threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In the 8AM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance 1 located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands have increased and become better organized since yesterday afternoon. Further development of this system is possible and a Tropical Depression could form over the next several days while it generally moves westward to west-northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday. The system has a 30% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 40% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 2 is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favourable, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic through the end of the week. The system has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 20% chance of development in the next five days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbances 1 and 2, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

A High Surf Advisory is in Effect For Montserrat’s Northern And Eastern Coastlines with relatively shallow, gently to moderately sloping, nearshore areas, due to above-normal swell heights!

Beachgoers, Spear and Shoreline Fishers are advised to use caution and remain vigilant when venturing onto affected coastlines as powerful waves can put your life at risk.
Timing: Tuesday morning until Wednesday night for Montserrat.

According to the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services, Moderate long-period swells are reaching the area and are expected to mainly affect northern and eastern coastlines. The threat level to the life, livelihood, and property of those using the affected coastlines is moderate to high, with the potential for significant to extensive impacts. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surfs and rip currents on affected coastlines. A high surf advisory means that dangerous surfs of 2 to 3 metres or 6 to 10 feet will affect some coastlines in the advisory area, producing hazardous conditions.

Seas (significant wave heights): 1.5 to 2.5 metres (5 to 8 feet), occasionally or locally reaching near 3 metres (10 feet).
Swell period: 9 to 14 seconds. Swells: Northeast at 1.5 to 2.5 metres (5 to 8 feet) and occasionally higher.

Surfs (breaking swells): Over 2 metres (over 6 feet). These conditions are conducive for dangerous rip currents. Please note that surfs could be as much as twice the height of swells, depending on the bathymetry of the nearshore areas.

Coastal flooding: High tides combined with onshore wind and swell actions could result in localized coastal flooding and beach erosion.

Potential Impacts: Loss of life–strong currents that can carry even the strongest swimmers out to sea; injuries to beachgoers; beach erosion; sea water splashing onto low-lying coastal roads; beach closures; localized disruptions to marine recreation and businesses; financial losses; damage to coral reefs; saltwater intrusion and disruptions to potable water from desalination. High surfs can knock spectators off exposed rocks and jetties.

Precautionary: Beachgoers, especially to the mainly affected coastlines, should be extremely cautious; bathe only where lifeguards are present or the sheltered, less affected beaches, mainly to the south. Extreme caution is also required by those using the affected non-beach or rocky coastlines.

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and near structures such as groins, jetties and piers. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

8AM UPDATE: There are now three Tropical Disturbances for possible development in the Atlantic!

Yellow Hill – Friday, 9 September 2022 – At this time, none of the systems poses an immediate threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In the 8AM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance 1 is located about 1100 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Although upper-level winds are expected to remain strong, the system still has some opportunity during the next day or so to become a short-lived tropical cyclone while moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph into the central subtropical Atlantic. The system has a 30% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 30% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 2 is located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the middle of next week. The system has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 20% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 3 is forecast to move off the coast of Africa by early next week. Some gradual development is possible after it moves over water and heads generally westward over the far eastern Atlantic. The system has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 20% chance of development in the next five days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor the three Tropical Disturbances, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

8AM UPDATE: Two Tropical Disturbances in the Atlantic; one with a High Chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in 48 hours and the other with a low probability in 5 days!

Yellow Hill – Thursday, 8 September 2022 – At this time, none of the systems currently poses a threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In the 8AM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance 1 is located almost a thousand miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Additional development of this system is expected, but only a small increase in organization could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today while it moves westward to west northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development.

Disturbance 1 has a 70% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 70% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 2 located in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic emerged off the west coast of Africa this morning. Some
gradual development as the system moves generally west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 2 has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 30% chance of development in the next five days.

The statistical peak of hurricane season is this weekend, on Sept. 10. Roughly two-thirds of all tropical systems in the Atlantic basin form in August or September.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

2PM UPDATE: Two Tropical Disturbances for possible development in the Atlantic!

Yellow Hill – Wednesday, 7 September 2022 – At this time, none of the systems currently poses a threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In the 2PM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance 1 is located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde. Additional development of this system is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over this period while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development of this system.

Disturbance 1 has a 70% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 70% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 2 located near the west African coast is forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next day or so. Some gradual development of the system is expected as the disturbance moves west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 2 has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 30% chance of development in the next five days.

The statistical peak of hurricane season is this weekend, on Sept. 10. Roughly two-thirds of all tropical systems in the Atlantic basin form in August or September.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

TROPICS UPDATE: Two Hurricanes, and two Tropical Disturbances for possible development in the Atlantic!

Yellow Hill – Wednesday, 7 September 2022 – At this time, none of the systems currently poses a threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In the 8AM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance 1 located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands appears conducive for additional development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over this period while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development of the system.

Disturbance 1 has a 60% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 60% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 2 located near the west African coast is forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 2 has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 30% chance of development in the next five days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.