MARINE FORECAST FOR MONTSERRAT MONDAY SEPTEMBER 10TH 27TH, 2018 TO SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 16TH, 2018

 

Monday September 10th, 2018
Seas are 1 to 2′ 1 to 2 feet.
Winds are East @ 4 E. 4 MPH.
Skies are SUNNY and HOT HOT HOT..

Tuesday September 11th, 2018
Seas are 1 to 2′ 2 to 3 feet.
Winds are East @ 8 E. 8 MPH.
Skies are SUNNY and HOT HOT HOT..

Wednesday September 12th, 2018
Seas are 3′ 5 to 6 feet.
Winds are Northeast @ 12 NE. 12 to 16 MPH.
Skies are Partly Sunny with light rains, TS. “Isaac” starts about 11PM. Wed. Night, with a much diminish strength storm.

Thursday September 13th, 2018.
Seas are 8 to 10′ 8 to 10 feet.
Winds are East-northeast @ 18 to 26 NE. 18 to 20 MPH.
Skies Cloudy with light rains all day, TS. “ISAAC” will be gone by morning, rains stop around 2PM.

Friday September 14th, 2018
Seas are 6 to 8′ 6 to 7 feet.
Winds are East @ 18 to 26 E. 15 to 18 MPH.
Skies Cloudy with light rains all day..

Saturday September 15th, 2018
Seas are 5 to 6′ 5 feet.
Winds are East-southeast @ 10 to 16 ESE. 8 to 12 MPH.
Skies Cloudy with light rains in the AM…

Sunday September 16th, 2018
Seas are Northerly 4 to 5′ N @ 3 to 5 feet.
Winds are Southeast @ 8 to 12 E. 4 to 8 MPH.
Skies Cloudy most of the day.. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MV0) WEEKLY REPORT AUGUST 31ST TO SEPTEMBER 7TH, 2018

 

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano remains low.

The seismic network recorded one rockfall and four volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week.

Measurements of the SO2 flux were able to be taken from the helicopter on 31 August and 05 September. On 31 August seven traverses were carried out, with an average flux of 265 tonnes per day, and on 05 September there were eight traverses with an average of 327 tonnes per day. Data from the new permanent gas-monitoring stations, which are currently being tested, indicate that the flux remains in the range 100 to 400 tonnes per day.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted. Continue reading

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DMCA IS URGING RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO COMPLETE THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS AND CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL STORM ISSAC AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS

According to the Antigua Meteorological Services, although, Tropical Storm Issac is not looking in the best of shapes, he remains of great concern to the islands and hurricane season plans should be completed by ALL.

…ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS…

LOCATION…14.5N 38.1W
ABOUT 1540 MI…2475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 38.1 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Isaac is expected to become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). Continue reading

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DMCA IS URGING RESIDENTS TO CONTINUE WITH THEIR HURRICANE PREPARATIONS AND MONITOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CLOSELY; AS WEATHER EXPERTS SAY THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS OF GREAT CONCERN TO THE CARIBBEAN AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A HURRICANE

According to the Antigua Meteorological Services, Tropical Depression 9 is of great concern to the Caribbean which is forecast to approach the area as a hurricane. Therefore, residents are asked to monitor this system closely.

Meanwhile, the Antigua Met Services say Disturbance AL94 is being monitored, but of greatest concern to the Caribbean is Tropical Depression 9.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 36.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
A turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are expected later today and tonight, with a westward motion continuing into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Disturbance AL94: A trough of low pressure is generating disorganized showers over the western Atlantic near Bermuda. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur before environmental conditions become
unfavorable in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

SOURCE: NOAA, National Hurricane Center and Antigua Meteorological Services

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DISTURBANCE AL92 NOW HAS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A STORM; MEANWHILE, A NEW DISTURBANCE AL93 IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA

Disturbance 1 (AL92): Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure centered a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

Disturbance 2 (AL(93): A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of the system is possible over the weekend while the wave moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

According to the Antigua Met Services both systems should be monitored; however, there is no need to worry, at this time. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 6TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: A light to gentle windflow due to a weak pressure gradient will result in a warm and uncomfortable environment across the islands today. An airmass low on moisture and instability will also continue to restrict shower activity. However, later tonight and overnight, some shallow moisture moving into the area will increase the chance of showers to moderate.

WEATHER TODAY: Sunny to partly sunny with a 20 percent or slight chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a 40 percent or moderate chance of showers.

WINDS: Easterly at 9 to 19 km/h or 5 to 10 knots..

SEAS: Slight to moderate with significant wave heights 1 to 1.5 metres or 3 to 5 feet..

SUNSET TODAY: 6:19 pm     SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:57 am. Continue reading

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DISTURBANCE NEAR AFRICA HAS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A STORM IN 5 DAYS

A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move slowly westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this week or this weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 5TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: A high pressure system is the dominant weather feature and will keep conditions relatively dry and stable for the forecast period.

WEATHER TODAY: Fair to partly cloudy with a 10 percent or slight a chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Fair to partly cloudy with a 10 percent or slight a chance of showers.

WINDS: Easterly with speeds ranging between 13 to 28 km/h or 7 to 15 knots with lighter spells at times.

SEAS: Slight to moderate with significant wave heights not exceeding 1.5 metres or 5 feet.

SUNSET TODAY: 6:20 pm. SUNRISE TOMORROW: 5:57 am. Continue reading

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LATEST UPDATE ON THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO VERDE ISLANDS

A tropical wave located more than 400 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

Residents and visitors are asked to continue to monitor this system.

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MONTSERRAT NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 4TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: The atmosphere across the area is moist and unstable and conducive to cloudiness and showers over the next twenty four hours. Possible rainfall total could exceed 10mm (0.39) inch for the forecast period.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy, becoming increasingly cloudy at times with a 70 percent or high chance of showers and a 40 percent or moderate chance of thunderstorms.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a 70 percent or high chance of showers and a 40 percent or moderate chance of thunderstorms.

WINDS: Southeast at 15 to 22 km/h or 8 to 12 knots..

SEAS: Moderate with significant wave heights 1.2 metres or 4 feet.

Sunset today: 6:21 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 5:56 am.

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