In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 3:00 p.m. on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, the Met Service reported that an active tropical wave over the eastern tropical North Atlantic has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm later this week or weekend, as it moves generally westward toward the region.

At this early stage, it remains unclear if or when the system will develop or whether it will impact the northeast Caribbean. Interests in Montserrat should closely monitor its progress.

Residents are reminded to remain vigilant and prepared throughout the remainder of the hurricane season.

At 2:00 p.m., the tropical wave of interest was centered about 2,340 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving slowly westward.

Based on ASCAT data, maximum sustained winds were around 25 mph with higher gusts.

? Formation Chances
Next 48 hours: Low (30%)
Next 7 days: High (70%)

This means development in the short term is unlikely, but the likelihood significantly increases over the next week.

Please note: There are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area, and none may be required at this time.

? The next update will be issued around 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if necessary.

Forecaster: Dale Destin

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service says Tropical Disturbance AL99, which is approaching the Caribbean, has less than a 50 percent chance of affecting Montserrat as a tropical cyclone.

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued today, Sunday, 24 August 2025, at 10:00 a.m., the Met Service states that, regardless of development, showers and thunderstorms are possible, along with strong, gusty winds across portions of the southern Leeward Islands, including Montserrat, this evening and Monday.

It adds that the greatest threat from this disturbance is lightning, and advises residents to be prepared for some disruptions from this hazard.

Mariners should also be aware of potentially hazardous seas, although the overall wind risk remains very low.

There are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for Montserrat, and none are likely to be required.

Residents and visitors on Montserrat should continue to monitor the progress of AL99 and remain prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 10:00 a.m., Tropical Disturbance AL99 was centered about 665 miles southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving quickly west at about 23 mph.

Based on ASCAT data, maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph with higher gusts. This system could still develop into a tropical depression during the next day or two. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 40 percent, and formation chance over seven days is also medium at 40 percent.

The next update will be around 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.

— Forecaster Dale Destin

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service reports that weakened Tropical Disturbance AL99 continues to move toward the Caribbean, with only a slight chance of developing into a tropical cyclone and affecting the region.

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 4:15 p.m., the Met Service noted that there remain significant uncertainties with AL99’s development, since environmental conditions along its forecast path vary from conducive to non-conducive for tropical cyclone formation.

No hazards are currently forecast to reach the area from this system. Residents are still advised to monitor the progress of AL99 and remain prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

? At 2:00 p.m., the system was located 855 miles southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at 23 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next couple of days

? Formation Chances (AL99):
Next 48 hours: 20% (Low)
Next 7 days: 20% (Slight)

?? There are currently no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area, and none are expected at this time.

? Next Update: Around 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster Dale Destin

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 2:30 p.m. on Friday, August 22, 2025, the Met Service notes that Tropical Disturbance AL99 has the potential to become a tropical cyclone and affect Montserrat cannot be ruled out.

It states that there are lots of uncertainties associated with the development of the disturbance, as environmental conditions along the forecast path vary from conducive to non-conducive for tropical cyclone formation. No hazards are forecast to reach Montserrat from this system. However, residents should monitor the progress of AL99. To be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 2:00 p.m., AL99 was located about 1,400 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at approximately 13 mph. ASCAT data indicate maximum sustained winds near 30 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend.

Formation chances:
Through 48 hours: Low (30%)
Through 7 days: Medium (40%)

There are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches or warnings in effect for Montserrat at this time.

The next statement will be issued by 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or earlier if necessary.

Forecaster: Dale Destin

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service has lifted the Tropical Cyclone Alert for Montserrat. Hurricane Erin is now outside our area.

No direct impacts expected this weekend. ??

A tropical cyclone alert remains in effect for Montserrat for Hurricane Erin, which is now a Category 4.

A tropical cyclone alert means, in this case, Hurricane Erin is within our monitored area but not close enough for a watch or warning.

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 5 a.m. on Saturday, August 16, 2025, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service indicated that the best forecast remains for the centre of Erin to pass northeast then north of all the islands.

It states that the chance of storm-force winds reaching the mentioned islands is low. However, any shift towards the islands could bring the core of the system uncomfortably close to the islands today into Sunday. The risk from swells will rise; hence, those near coastal areas should be aware. Other hazards, such as heavy rainfall accompanied by strong gusty winds, are also possible within outer rain bands.

Residents and visitors on Montserrat should monitor the progress of this cyclone and, to be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 8:00 am, the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. While the eye has wobbled westward during the past few hours, Erin is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 20 mph.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph with higher gusts.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles, mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure is 935 mb.

Swells from Erin will cause marine conditions to deteriorate, and mariners are advised to remain in port and ensure that their vessels are safely moored.

Forecaster Jaleel Jacobs

A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in effect for Montserrat.

A tropical cyclone alert means, in this case, that Hurricane Erin is within our monitored area but not close enough for a watch or warning to be issued.

The best forecast remains for the centre of Erin to pass northeast, then north of Montserrat. The chance of storm-force winds reaching Montserrat is low. However, any shift towards the islands could bring the core of the system uncomfortably close to the islands late tonight into Sunday. The risk from swells will rise; hence, those near coastal areas should be aware. Other hazards, such as heavy rainfall accompanied by strong gusty winds, are also possible within outer rain bands.

Residents on Montserrat should monitor the progress of this cyclone and, to be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 5:00 pm, the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 18.9 north, longitude 57.6 west or 365 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph. This motion is expected to continue into the weekend with some decrease in forward speed. On the current forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to pass just north of the northern Leewards during the weekend
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during this weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure is 993 mb.

Swells from Erin would cause marine conditions to deteriorate, and mariners are advised to remain in port and ensure that their vessels are safely moored.

Rainfall amounts of 2 -4 inches are possible, which could cause flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas; hence, residents should move to a safer location.

Forecaster Bernell Simon

A Tropical Cyclone Alert remains in effect for Montserrat.

A tropical cyclone alert means, in this case, that Hurricane Erin is within our monitored area but not close enough for a watch or warning to be issued.

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 12:15 p.m. on Friday, August 15, 2025, the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service indicated that the best forecast remains for the centre of Erin to pass northeast then north of all the islands. The chance of storm-force winds reaching the mentioned islands is low. However, any shift towards the islands could bring the core of the system uncomfortably close to the islands late tonight into Sunday. The risk from swells will rise; hence, those near coastal areas should be aware. Other hazards, such as heavy rainfall accompanied by strong gusty winds, are also possible within outer rain bands

Residents on Montserrat should monitor the progress of this cyclone and, to be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 11:00 am, the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 18.2 north, longitude 56.1 or 460 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion is expected to continue into the weekend. On the current forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to pass northeast to north of the area during the weekend

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure is 996 mb.

Swells from Erin would cause marine conditions to deteriorate, and mariners are advised to remain in port and ensure that their vessels are safely moored.

Rainfall amounts of 2 -4 inches are possible, which could cause flooding in low-lying and flood-prone areas; hence, residents should move to a safer location.

A Tropical Storm Alert remains in effect for Montserrat… Erin is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane today.

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of strengthening tropical storm Erin. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by today and possibly pass dangerously close to Montserrat.

The best forecast remains for the centre of Erin to pass north of all the islands. The chance of storm-force winds reaching the mentioned islands is low. However, further shifts to the south or persistent westward motion could bring the core of the system uncomfortably close to the islands late tonight or Saturday. The risk from swells will increase; therefore, those living near coastal areas should be aware. Other hazards, such as heavy rainfall accompanied by strong gusty winds, are also possible.

Montserrat should monitor the progress of this cyclone and, to be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 5 am, the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.8 north, longitude 54.4 west. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest at 17 mph. This motion is expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern leeward islands over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Erin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could become a major hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 997 mb.

Forecaster Patrice Edwards

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) continues to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Erin, which forecasters warn could come dangerously close to Montserrat this weekend if there is any southward shift in its track.

As of 5:00 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 16.5° North and longitude 41.9° West. Erin is moving west at around 20 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1004 mb.

On the current forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin is likely to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

At this time, no watches or warnings are in effect for Montserrat.

The DMCA urges residents to review their hurricane preparedness and business continuity plans, remain informed through official channels, and be ready to act in case conditions change.

The DMCA will continue to provide regular updates on Tropical Storm Erin.