MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 20TH, 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS: Atlantic surface high pressure will continue to generate a moderate wind flow across the region. The wind will maintain choppy seas across the area. Meanwhile, a surge of moisture associated with a surface trough will increase the chance of showers across the islands today.

WEATHER TODAY: Cloudy spells with a 40 percent or moderate chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent or slight chance of showers.

WINDS: East 19 to 33 km/h or 10 -18 knots.

SEAS: Significant wave height to 1.8 to 2.4 metres or 6 to 8 feet. An advisory remains in effect for small craft operators..

Sunset today: 5:35 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:16 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.msand ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MV0) WEEKLY REPORT NOVEMBER 9TH TO NOVEMBER 16TH, 2018

 

The seismic network recorded two rockfalls and 16 volcano-tectonic earthquakes this week. 14 of the VT earthquakes occurred in a very brief swarm in the morning of 13 November.

Measurements of the SO2 flux were taken from the helicopter on 9 November. There were eight traverses with an average flux of 209 tonnes per day.

Pyroclastic flows can occur at any time without warning on any side of the volcano, including Gages from where they can travel rapidly into Plymouth. Tracks across the Belham Valley can be destroyed or heavily modified by flash flooding or lahars, and caution should be exercised crossing the valley during and after rainfall.

The Hazard Level is 1. There is no public access to Zone V, including Plymouth. Maritime Zones E and W are daytime transit only between sunrise and sunset (boats may sail through the zone but must not stop). Anyone who ignores these restrictions is liable to be prosecuted.

Please continue to monitor ZJB Radio, DMCA’s website at www.dmca.gov.ms and Facebook at Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency-DMCA for regular updates.

SOURCE: MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY (MVO)

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MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM TUESDAY NOVEMBER 20TH, 2018

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SYNOPSIS: A relatively stable atmosphere over the Leewards and BVI will result in minimal shower activity over these islands today. Later tonight, a weak trough moving over the Leewards will increase the chance of showers over these islands

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy with a 40 percent or a moderate chance of a passing morning shower

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy this evening becoming increasingly cloudy with a 50 percent or moderate chance of overnight showers

WINDS: East at 19 to 33km/h or 10 to 18 knots.

SEAS: A combination of wave and swells between 1.8 to 2.4 meters or 6 to 8 feet. A small craft advisory remains in effect.

Sunset today: 5:35 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:15 am. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM SATURDAY NOVEMBER 17TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: A low level trough bringing some moisture and instability across the Leeward Islands today will heighten the chance of showers over the islands. Later this evening and tonight a less moist and more stable airmass sitting over the area will restrict shower activity. A tight pressure gradient will also maintain moderate to fresh winds across the region which in turn will make sea conditions somewhat hazardous for small craft operators.

WEATHER TODAY: Cloudy with a 70 percent or high chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent or low chance of showers.

WINDS: Easterly at 26 to 37 km/h or 14 to 20 knots with some gusts mainly in showers.

SEAS: Significant wave heights 2.1 to 2.4 metres or 7 to 8 feet. A small craft advisory remains in effect.

Sunset today: 5:35 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:14 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.msand ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates.

Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM FRIDAY NOVEMBER 16TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: A drier and more stable air mass is settling over the area as a high-pressure system begins to dominate. This high will also generate moderate to the fresh breeze which in turn will cause a slight elevation in the sea level. Late tonight, a weak low-level trough will move across the islands increasing the chance for some shower activity.

WEATHER TODAY: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent or a slight chance of showers.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to cloudy with a 50% or a moderate chance of late night showers.

WINDS: East between 22 to 37 km/h or 12 to 20 knots with slightly higher gusts during showers and over open waters.

SEAS: 1.8 to 2.4 metres or 6 to 8 feet and occasionally rising higher therefore the small craft advisory remains in effect.

Sunset today: 5:35 pm.                                 Sunrise tomorrow: 6:13 am. Continue reading

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SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY COMMITTEE (SAC) 23 PRELIMINARY STATEMENT – NOVEMBER 8TH, 2018

Soufrière Hills volcano has shown no significant changes in its behaviour during the past year. Measurements of sulphur dioxide emission have been carried out by helicopter and the new ground-based spectrometer network, and show a steady outgassing rate. Volcanic gases that escape through fumaroles have remained at a high temperature, as observed in the previous years. Seismicity has remained at a very low level except for occasional short episodes of volcano-tectonic earthquakes. Monitoring of ground deformation indicates a slow but continuous lengthening over the island, with a maximum uplift of about one centimetre over the last year. While this is consistent with the activity we have seen over the previous 7 years, we now begin to see a small reduction in the rate of deformation.

Taking these observations together, we conclude that the volcano remains in a state of unrest. We consider the most likely cause of this unrest to be a pressurised magma system. While a restart of lava extrusion remains a possibility in the future, there are no signs that this is imminent. We consider that the most likely scenario for the next year is a continuation of the current state.

The major part of the lava dome remains stable but continuing erosion has the potential to destabilize steep parts of the dome. The chance that pyroclastic flows will occur within the next year remains low. However, the volcano is still a potential source of hazards, some of which could occur at any time with little or no warning and could pose a threat to people working in or visiting certain areas of Zone V. Continue reading

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MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST VALID UP TO 8 AM THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15TH, 2018

 

SYNOPSIS: The presence of a persistent trough and lingering moisture and instability from a tropical wave will continue to generate cloudiness with showers across the Islands today and tonight. Possible rainfall total for the forecast period is 10 to 15 mm or 0.4 to 0.6 inch. The flash flood watch has been extended to 8 am.

WEATHER TODAY: Cloudy spells with a 70 percent or high chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Weather tonight: Partly cloudy with a 50 percent or moderate chance of showers.

WINDS: East southeast at 22 to 33 km/h or 12 to 18 knots.

SEAS: Significant wave heights 2.1 metres or 7 feet. The small craft advisory is in effect.

Sunset today: 5:35 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:13 am.

Please continue to monitor DMCA ’s facebook page -Montserrat Disaster Management Coordination Agency -DMCA and website – www.dmca.gov.msand ZJB Radio Montserrat for regular updates. Continue reading

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ANTIGUA MET OFFICE ISSUES MINOR FLOODING ADVISORY FOR MONTSERRAT; DMCA URGES MOTORISTS TO DRIVE WITH DUE CARE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS

The Antigua Meteorological Services has issued a flash flood advisory for Montserrat.

The warning is in effect for minor flooding in low lying and flood prone areas and is valid until 5 pm today.

Therefore, the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is advising motorists to drive with due care and attention and be mindful of areas prone to flooding. The areas are Robert W Griffith Drive from Little Bay to Carrs Bay – adjacent to Piper’s Pond and Pump Ghaut in St John’s.

The DMCA is also cautioning motorists especially when driving to remain alert and look out for areas prone to landslides and rockfalls namely from Forgathy to Cudjoe Head, Pump Ghaut to Look Out and the Barzey’s area.

Residents in Isles Bay Hill and other persons crossing the Belham Valley River are asked to take extra precautions during heavy rainfall associated due, to the possibility of lahars occurring with little or no warning in the area.

A flood advisory means that streams, creeks and drains may be elevated or even overflowing into streets, low lying and flood prone areas; however, property damage will be minimal.

Inconveniences can be expected but the flooding is not expected to be immediately life-threatening. however, just one foot of flowing water is enough to sweep vehicles off the road. when encountering flooded roads be extremely cautious, and if in doubt, make the smart choice, turn around don’t drown. move to higher ground.

A persistent trough over the northeast Caribbean is influencing the weather over the leeward and British Virgin Islands, causing periodic heavy showers. already, based on radar estimates, up to an inch of rainfall has fallen in the vicinity of the island. hence, minor flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is expected. Continue reading

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN OUR AREA COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION OR STORM IN 24 HRS OR SO; RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY, BE PREPARED, IF NEEDED, TO TAKE ACTION

A vigorous tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands is producing a large area of disturbed weather over much of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little more concentrated this morning, and environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. Interests in these areas
should closely monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent. Continue reading

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ANOTHER VERY WET 24 HRS FOR MONTSERRAT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98

HERE’S THE REST OF MONTSERRAT’S NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST

VALID UP TO 8 AM TUESDAY NOVEMBER 13TH, 2018

SYNOPSIS: An area of disturbed weather associated with an approaching tropical wave will result in yet another eventful day across the island. With the land already saturated, additional rainfall could easily cause streets and low lying areas to flood. Residents are therefore asked to be cautious while manoeuvring through these flood waters. Possible rainfall total for the forecast period is 10 to 50 mm or 0.40 to 2.0 inches.

WEATHER TODAY: Mostly cloudy skies with showers and a moderate chance of thunderstorms.

WEATHER TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms.

WINDS: East-northeasterly today becoming east southeasterly overnight and will range between 9 to 28 km/h or 5 to 15 knots. Higher gusts are likely as a result of shower downpours.

SEAS: 1.5 to 2.1 metres or 5 to 7 feet dominated by easterly swells reaching 1.5 meters or 5 feet. Beachgoers should, therefore, exercise caution.

Sunset today: 5:36 pm. Sunrise tomorrow: 6:12 am. Continue reading

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