The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is monitoring two disturbances in the Atlantic.

? AL92 – Located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of West Africa, this system has become better organized since yesterday. Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10–15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.

? Formation Chances:
• Next 48 hours: High (90%)
• Next 7 days: High (90%)

? Second Disturbance – A new tropical wave emerging off the African coast. It remains far out in the Atlantic and currently has only a 20% chance of development within 7 days (near 0% in the next 48 hours).

At this time, neither system poses an immediate threat to Montserrat. However, residents are urged to stay informed, remain vigilant, and be prepared.

The DMCA will continue to monitor both systems closely and provide timely updates.

Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service
10:40 a.m. Friday, September 5, 2025

…Tropical cyclone expected to form – Residents and visitors should monitor closely…

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL91, located over the central tropical North Atlantic Ocean. The system is expected to become a tropical depression or storm early next week as it moves in the general direction of the Caribbean.

At this stage, it is still unclear when AL91 will form or whether it will impact the region. The system currently appears weaker in satellite imagery compared to yesterday, and some reliable models have reduced its potential for formation. However, environmental conditions remain generally favourable for further development. The risk of hazards from this disturbance is low at this time.

Residents of Montserrat should remain vigilant for potential hazardous weather and continue monitoring the progress of this system. To be safe, residents are reminded to stay prepared for the remainder of the hurricane season.

At 8 a.m., Tropical Disturbance AL91 was centred about 1,743 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at around 9 mph.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 25 mph with higher gusts. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium (60%), and formation chance over seven days is high (90%). This means development in the next 48 hours is more likely than not, and development over the next week is expected.

Please note that there are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area at this time; however, an alert will likely be required within the next 24 hours.

The next update will be issued around 2 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster: Dale Destin

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) continues to monitor a tropical disturbance over the eastern tropical North Atlantic, now officially classified as Invest 91L (AL91). The system has a medium (60%) chance of development within 48 hours and a high (90%) likelihood over the next 7 days of becoming a tropical depression or storm.

AL91 has become better organized and is currently moving slowly westward at around 5–10 mph. It could be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.

At this early stage, it remains uncertain when the system will develop or whether it could impact Montserrat. Residents and visitors are urged to closely monitor its progress, assess their risk to hurricane hazards, review preparedness plans, and stay ready.

? Formation Chances:
Next 48 hours: Medium (60%)
Next 7 days: High (90%)
? This means short-term development is possible, but the likelihood increases significantly over the next week.

? There are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for Montserrat at this time.

? The DMCA will continue to monitor this system closely and provide timely updates.

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of an active tropical wave over the eastern tropical North Atlantic Ocean. The system is now expected to become a tropical depression or storm this weekend or early next week, as it moves in the general direction of the region.

At this stage, it remains unclear exactly when the system will develop or whether it will directly impact the region. However, over the last 12 hours, the wave has become better organized and is looking the most impressive to date. Residents in Montserrat are therefore advised to continue monitoring its progress. To be safe, residents are reminded to remain prepared for the remainder of the hurricane season.

At 8:00 a.m., the tropical wave of interest was centered about 1,916 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at around 9 mph.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 25 mph with higher gusts. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 50 percent, and formation chance over seven days is high at 80 percent. This means development in the next 48 hours is equally likely as not, but highly likely or expected within the next week.

Please note that there are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area at this time, but these may be required in a couple of days.

The next update will be issued around 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster: Dale Destin

Issued: Wednesday, September 3, 2025 – 9:30 a.m.

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of an active tropical wave over the eastern tropical North Atlantic. The system has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm later this week or the weekend as it moves generally westward toward the region.

At this early stage, it remains uncertain if or when the system will develop or whether it will impact the region. Residents and visitors in Montserrat are advised to continue monitoring its progress. ??To be safe, residents are reminded to remain prepared for the remainder of the hurricane season.

At 8 am, the tropical wave of interest was centred about 2130 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at around 12 mph.

Based on ASCAT Data, maximum sustained winds remain near 25 mph, with higher gusts. Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 30 percent, and formation chance over seven days is high at 70 percent. This means that development in the next 48 hours is unlikely, but there is a significant chance of development over the next seven days.

? There are currently no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for Montserrat.

? The next update will be issued by 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster: Dale Destin

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 3:00 p.m. on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, the Met Service reported that an active tropical wave over the eastern tropical North Atlantic has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm later this week or weekend, as it moves generally westward toward the region.

At this early stage, it remains unclear if or when the system will develop or whether it will impact the northeast Caribbean. Interests in Montserrat should closely monitor its progress.

Residents are reminded to remain vigilant and prepared throughout the remainder of the hurricane season.

At 2:00 p.m., the tropical wave of interest was centered about 2,340 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving slowly westward.

Based on ASCAT data, maximum sustained winds were around 25 mph with higher gusts.

? Formation Chances
Next 48 hours: Low (30%)
Next 7 days: High (70%)

This means development in the short term is unlikely, but the likelihood significantly increases over the next week.

Please note: There are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area, and none may be required at this time.

? The next update will be issued around 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if necessary.

Forecaster: Dale Destin

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service says Tropical Disturbance AL99, which is approaching the Caribbean, has less than a 50 percent chance of affecting Montserrat as a tropical cyclone.

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued today, Sunday, 24 August 2025, at 10:00 a.m., the Met Service states that, regardless of development, showers and thunderstorms are possible, along with strong, gusty winds across portions of the southern Leeward Islands, including Montserrat, this evening and Monday.

It adds that the greatest threat from this disturbance is lightning, and advises residents to be prepared for some disruptions from this hazard.

Mariners should also be aware of potentially hazardous seas, although the overall wind risk remains very low.

There are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for Montserrat, and none are likely to be required.

Residents and visitors on Montserrat should continue to monitor the progress of AL99 and remain prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 10:00 a.m., Tropical Disturbance AL99 was centered about 665 miles southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving quickly west at about 23 mph.

Based on ASCAT data, maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph with higher gusts. This system could still develop into a tropical depression during the next day or two. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium at 40 percent, and formation chance over seven days is also medium at 40 percent.

The next update will be around 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.

— Forecaster Dale Destin

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service reports that weakened Tropical Disturbance AL99 continues to move toward the Caribbean, with only a slight chance of developing into a tropical cyclone and affecting the region.

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 4:15 p.m., the Met Service noted that there remain significant uncertainties with AL99’s development, since environmental conditions along its forecast path vary from conducive to non-conducive for tropical cyclone formation.

No hazards are currently forecast to reach the area from this system. Residents are still advised to monitor the progress of AL99 and remain prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

? At 2:00 p.m., the system was located 855 miles southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at 23 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next couple of days

? Formation Chances (AL99):
Next 48 hours: 20% (Low)
Next 7 days: 20% (Slight)

?? There are currently no tropical cyclone alerts, watches, or warnings in effect for the area, and none are expected at this time.

? Next Update: Around 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or sooner if required.

Forecaster Dale Destin

In its Tropical Cyclone Information Statement issued at 2:30 p.m. on Friday, August 22, 2025, the Met Service notes that Tropical Disturbance AL99 has the potential to become a tropical cyclone and affect Montserrat cannot be ruled out.

It states that there are lots of uncertainties associated with the development of the disturbance, as environmental conditions along the forecast path vary from conducive to non-conducive for tropical cyclone formation. No hazards are forecast to reach Montserrat from this system. However, residents should monitor the progress of AL99. To be safe, be prepared for the rest of the hurricane season.

At 2:00 p.m., AL99 was located about 1,400 miles east-southeast of Antigua and Barbuda and the Leeward Islands, moving west at approximately 13 mph. ASCAT data indicate maximum sustained winds near 30 mph, with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend.

Formation chances:
Through 48 hours: Low (30%)
Through 7 days: Medium (40%)

There are no tropical cyclone alerts, watches or warnings in effect for Montserrat at this time.

The next statement will be issued by 2:00 p.m. tomorrow, or earlier if necessary.

Forecaster: Dale Destin

The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service has lifted the Tropical Cyclone Alert for Montserrat. Hurricane Erin is now outside our area.

No direct impacts expected this weekend. ??