CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PASS ITS CLOSEST TO MONTSERRAT AT 3 O’CLOCK.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND STAY VIGILANT AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO FORM LATER TODAY.
Yellow Hill, Montserrat – July 29, 2020 -At 800 AM, the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 62.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast today, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction, and some restrengthening possible late week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today.
Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent*
Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north and northeast of the center.
A wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported on St. Kitts. Potential impacts
• Rainfall between 3 – 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches in some locations.
• Winds may increase to 50 – 60 mph.
Power outages are possible.
• Storm surge is possible for shoreline areas
• A Small Craft Warning has been issued until Thursday
Yellow Hill, Montserrat – July 28, 2020 – At 1100 PM, the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 59.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
THE ANTIGUA MET OFFICE HAS ADVISED THAT BASED ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE ON THE ISLAND IT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
THE DMCA WILL BE PROVIDING AN UPDATE ON ZJB RADIO MONTSERRAT ABOUT 5:00 O’CLOCK THIS AFTERNOON.
Yellow Hill, Montserrat – July 28, 2020 – At 1100 AM, the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches)
Yellow Hill, Montserrat – July 24, 2020 – A tropical wave located about 300 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected to move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days, and some gradual development of this system is possible by early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent. Forecaster Stewart
Yellow Hill, Montserrat – July 24, 2020 – At 1100 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 54.2 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward- to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is still possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week.
Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
Yellow Hill, Montserrat – July 23, 2020 – At 800 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 47.9 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected today followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo would approach the Windward Islands late Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Gonzalo could become a hurricane later today.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 MB (29.44 inches).
AS THE PEAK MONTHS OF THE HURRICANE SEASON DRAW NEAR; RESIDENTS, VISITORS AND BUSINESSES ARE ASKED TO ASSESS THEIR RISK NOW, ADJUST THEIR EMERGENCY PLANS AND SUPPLIES TO FACTOR IN THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BE PREPARED.
