The Annual Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. 

A tropical cyclone is a rotating low-pressure weather system that has organized thunderstorms but no fronts (a boundary separating two air masses of different densities). Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 39 miles per hour (mph) are called tropical depressions. Those with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or higher are called tropical storms.

When a storm’s maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, it is called a hurricane. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating, or category, based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained winds. The higher the category, the greater the hurricane’s potential for property damage.

Hurricanes originate in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. A six-year rotating list of names, updated and maintained by the World Meteorological Organization, is used to identify these storms.

• A Bulletin is issued when a significant weather system is detected in the area.
• An Advisory is issued at regular intervals when a tropical storm or hurricane is first detected in the area.
• ? A Watch is issued when hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical storm-force winds.
• ? A Warning is issued when hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical storm-force winds. The warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and waves continue, even though winds may be less than hurricane force.

It states that given Tropical Disturbance AL94’s current distance and the fact that it has not developed into a tropical cyclone yet, there is considerable uncertainty regarding both the eventual forecast path and strength of AL94.

Be Prepared, Stay Prepared, It Only Takes One!

58 years old, on Friday, 17 September 1965, Pan-American Airways Boeing 707 Jet, crashed in Chance’s Mountain in the southern part of Montserrat, killing all 21 passengers and 9 crew members on board.

The aircraft, was on a flight from Fort-de-France, Martinique to Coolidge International Airport in Antigua and Barbuda when it crashed into Chances Peak.

While on approach to Coolidge International Airport in stormy weather, at an altitude of 2,760 ft, the aircraft hit the 3,002 ft high Chances Peak and caught fire. The cause was determined to be poor visibility and pilot error: the crew made a navigational error and descended below the safe minimum altitude while unsure of their position.

The Pan Am Flight 292, final destination was New York City.

34 years old, Montserrat was devastated by Category 4 Hurricane Hugo on Sunday, 17 September 1989, with wind speeds recorded at an average of 145 mph, and wind gusts being measured at over 180 mph.

Ten people were killed, and 89 others were injured. 98% of all homes were damaged, leaving over 2,500 people homeless.

Many schools, hospitals, and churches were destroyed, along with the police department, the government headquarters, and the main power station; Monlec (MUL).

Electricity, water and telephone services were disrupted for weeks.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED.

Yellow Hill Road, Montserrat – Sunday, 3 September 2023: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL95 located over the central Tropical Atlantic moving generally westward, and could become a Tropical Depression mid-week. Although, the seven-day forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty” includes Montserrat, the system is not an immediate threat to the island at this time. The system’s odds of development in 7 days have increased to 90%. No watches or warnings are in effect for Montserrat.

Tropical Disturbance AL 95 located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression around midweek. Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 50 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 90 percent.

Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last for at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA, and be prepared,

The DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL95, and provide regular updates until the system passes Montserrat.

Yellow Hill Road, Montserrat – Sunday, 3 September 2023: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Disturbance AL95 located over the central Tropical Atlantic moving generally westward and could become a Tropical Depression this week. The seven-day forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty” includes Montserrat. The system’s odds of development in 7 days have increased to 80%.

Tropical Disturbance AL 95 is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions appear conducive for further development this week. A tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 40 percent.

Formation chance through seven days: low, 80 percent.

Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last for at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA and be prepared.

DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1 and provide regular updates until the system passes Montserrat.

Yellow Hill Road, Montserrat – Saturday, 2 September 2023: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Disturbance 1 located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic moving generally westward with a high chance of development in 7 days. The seven-day forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty” includes Montserrat, hence, Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last for at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA and be prepared.

Tropical Disturbance 1 is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system by the middle part of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 20 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 70 percent.

The DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1 and provide regular updates until the system passes Montserrat.

Yellow Hill Road, Montserrat – Saturday, 19 August 2023: The Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA) continues to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Disturbance 3 ( AL90) near the Windward Islands now with a 60% chance of development in 7 days. The seven-day forecast cone, or “cone of uncertainty” includes Montserrat, hence, Residents are encouraged to have their hurricane kits ready with enough supplies to last for at least three days, pay close attention to information, issued by the DMCA and be prepared.

Tropical Disturbance 3 formed near the Windward Islands, shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week while this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Windward Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system.

Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 40 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: low, 60 percent.

According to Meteorologist, Dale Destin, Tropical Disturbance AL90, which has a 60% chance of formation in 7 days could become a Tropical Storm early next week and become a BIG problem for the central or western Caribbean.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 6 and Tropical Disturbances 1 (red) and 5 (yellow) are not an immediate threat to Montserrat at this time, however, DMCA continues to monitor these two systems.

The DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 3 and provides regular updates until the system passes Montserrat.