His latest forecast calls for 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 221. These numbers are higher than average and suggest a potentially intense season.

The primary factors driving this prediction are unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the tropical North Atlantic and cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern Equatorial Pacific, conditions often associated with La Niña. These factors typically enhance hurricane development and intensity.

However, Destin also notes that there are uncertainties, particularly regarding the impact of Saharan dust. This dust can suppress hurricane formation, but its intensity and timing are difficult to predict beyond a few days, adding a layer of uncertainty to the overall forecast.

As we move into the peak of the hurricane season (August to October), the situation will require close monitoring.

Disturbance AL98 is expected to become a Tropical Depression by early Monday morning and then develop into Tropical Storm Ernesto.

According to the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CARICOF), cooling temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will likely result in a progressive transition to La Niña while (near-)record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean is set to continue.

Therefore, an intense peak of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the Caribbean Wet Season and Heat Season, implying frequent and intense (i) episodes of oppressive humid heat; and (ii) tropical cyclones and severe weather, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.

It states that should the intrusion of dry Saharan air (which usually peaks through early August) be more frequent than usual, storm and shower activity may be more erratic, though intense, in between episodes, while heat will remain in record territory.

The August wet season often includes a mid-summer dry spell, while the September to October 2024 Wet Season is usually frequent heavy showers.

The Caribbean Climate Outlooks are prepared by the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF). The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), in its role, as WMO Regional Climate Centre, coordinates the CariCOF process.

It states that the disturbance, which could become AL97, is not expected to become a tropical Storm or hurricane before reaching the northeast Caribbean. Hence, the system poses little to no threat to Montserrat. The risk of wind, rainfall or seas is very low or low, so no action is required.

According to the CariCOF Climate Outlooks for August to October 2024, frequent episodes of heat stress are expected as the region is likely to continue to be in a potentially record Heat Season. Heat stress may further ramp up if Saharan dust incursions increase dry spell frequency.

DMCA urges residents to stay cool and protect their families and neighbours from preventable heat-related sicknesses, such as heat stroke and heat exhaustion, as temperatures are expected to climb over the next three months.

The Caribbean Climate Outlooks are prepared by the Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF). The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), in its role, as WMO Regional Climate Centre coordinates the CariCOF process.

Be Prepared for Extreme Heat.

The Government of Montserrat is donating one hundred thousand dollars (EC$100,000.00) to the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) to assist islands impacted by Hurricane Beryl.

Premier of Montserrat, Honourable Joseph Farrell said the decision was made during the Thursday, July 4th meeting of Cabinet.

He further explained that the government thought it prudent to make a cash donation, through CDEMA, as CDEMA is the region’s central agency for disaster relief.

Premier Farrell added that the government is also in talks with the Director of the Disaster Management Coordination Agency (DMCA), Lieutenant Colonel Alvin Ryan to determine if there are available personnel to be deployed to the affected islands. He further noted that all CARICOM leaders have been in contact with each other, and an emergency CARICOM meeting was held early last week about the situation in the Grenadines, and Barbados.

Premier was among Caribbean leaders to receive briefings from heads of the affected islands on the damages that occurred and the vital supplies, that are, required for the recovery process.

Premier Farrell expressed empathy on behalf of the government and the people of Montserrat to the people of the islands impacted by Hurricane Beryl.

He is urging residents of Montserrat to ensure plans are in place for the hurricane season and has cautioned persons to avoid becoming complacent during the hurricane season.

Photos: CDEMA – Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency