ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL STORM EARL ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 05:20 AM ECT SAT, SEP 3, 2022, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT.

IT STATES THAT THERE REMAINS SOME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH, TRACK AND SIZE OF TROPICAL STORM EARL.
NOTWITHSTANDING, THE STORM IS IN THE VICINITY AND IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE STORM-FORCE WINDS, WHICH ARE MAINLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CYCLONE POSES AN ELEVATED/MINOR THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS NEVERTHELESS, YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AT VERY SHORT NOTICE SHOULD THE NEED ARISE.

AT 5 AM, TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR 211 MILES EAST OF TORTOLA IN THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTER WHICH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTRE OF EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITH SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRESENTLY, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MONTSERRAT. NOTWITHSTANDING, ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF EARL’S CENTRE WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING, AT LEAST, SOME OF THE ISLANDS.

EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ACROSS PARTS OF THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MINOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT. ADDITIONALLY, SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR BEACH-GOERS DURING THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 11 AM.

FORECASTER LETITIA HUMPHREYS

ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (AL91) ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 8:18 PM FRIDAY, SEP 2, 2022, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.

AT 8 PM, THE DISTURBANCE (AL91) WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 475 MILES EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A BIT BASED ON HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA, THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STILL POSES A LOW THREAT TO MONTSERRAT; HENCE APART FROM CONTINUED MONITORING, NO OTHER ACTIONS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

AL91 CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT ON SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR IT WILL PASS FROM THE ISLANDS GIVEN THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET FORMED.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED; HOWEVER, IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE EVENING, THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT MAINLY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR BEACH-GOERS DURING THE WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 8 AM OR SOONER SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY.

FORECASTER BERNELL SIMON

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL91 and provide regular updates.

ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (AL91) ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, AT 8:18 AM, FRIDAY, 2, SEPTEMBER 2022, RESIDENTS ON MONTSERRAT ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

ALSO, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.

AT 8 AM, THE DISTURBANCE (AL91) WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 574 MILES EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AL91 CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR IT WILL PASS FROM THE ISLANDS BECAUSE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS NOT YET FORMED.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED; HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALSO, SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR BEACH-GOERS DURING THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 8 PM ECT, OR SOONER SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY.

FORECASTER LETITIA HUMPHREYS

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL91 and provide regular updates as soon as information is released from the Antigua and Barbuda Met Services and the NHC.

HOWEVER, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91.

THAT’S ACCORDING TO THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED EARLY MORNING, FRIDAY, 2 SEPTEMBER, 2022.

AT 8PM, THE DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 614 MILES EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR IT WILL PASS FROM THE ISLANDS BECAUSE A WELL DEFINED CENTER IS NOT YET FORMED.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED; HOWEVER, SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR BEACH-GOERS DURING THE WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 8 AM.

FORECASTER PATRICE EDWARDS

THAT’S ACCORDING TO THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED TODAY THURSDAY, 1 SEPTEMBER, 2022.

HOWEVER, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91.

AT 8AM, THE DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND 815 EAST OF THE BVI.

THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST -NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR IT WILL PASS FROM THE ISLANDS BECAUSE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IS NOT YET FORMED.

BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED; HOWEVER, SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR BEACH-GOERS DURING THE WEEKEND.

RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL IT CLEARS THE AREA.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT OR EARLIER SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY.

FORECASTER LENARD JOSIAH

Yellow Hill – Thursday, 1 September -According to a Tropical Cyclone Alert Statement Issued by The Antigua And Barbuda Meteorological Services on Wednesday morning, there are no watches or warnings in effect at this time for Montserrat; however, residents and visitors here are advised to monitor the progress of AL91!

At 8 o’clock Thursday morning, the Nationa Hurricane Center Advisory states that Disturbance AL91 located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has changed little this morning. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.

AL91 has an 80% or a high chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in 5 days and, a 60% in 48 hours.

We are still awaiting the Thursday morning Tropical Alert Statement from the Antigua And Barbuda Meteorological Services, and as soon as the information becomes available to us, the DMCA will release it.

Meantime, there are two other systems in the Atlantic; Tropical Depression Five and Tropical Disturbance 2, none of the systems is a threat to Montserrat.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL91 and provide regular updates as soon as information is released from the Antigua and Barbuda Met Services and the NHC.

ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 9:36 AM ON WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 31, 2022, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.

AT 8 AM, BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 993 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING AND REMAINS A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN TOWARD THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHAT IMPACTS IF ANY, THE DISTURBANCE (AL91) WILL HAVE ON THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. RESIDENTS ON MONTSERRAT ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

MEANWHILE, THERE REMAINS IS AN 80 PERCENT OR HIGH CHANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS WEEK ONCE THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.

CURRENTLY, THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT; HOWEVER, RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 2 PM, THIS AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY OR EARLIER SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL91and provide regular updates as information is released from the Antigua and Barbuda Met Services and the NHC.

According to a Tropical Cyclone Alert Statement Issued by The Antigua And Barbuda Meteorological Services on Tuesday night, there are no watches or warnings in effect at this time for Montserrat; however, residents and visitors here are advised to monitor the progress of AL91!

At 8 pm on Tuesday night, the disturbance was located approximately 745 miles east-southeast of the leeward islands and about 917 miles east-southeast of the British Virgin Islands and remains a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

The disturbance is moving slowly toward the west at 5 to 10 mph. A west-northwest turn toward the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands is forecast in the next couple of days.

There remains an 80% or high chance of the disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone later this week once the center becomes better organized.

We are still awaiting the Wednesday morning Tropical Alert Statement from the Antigua And Barbuda Meteorological Services, and as soon as the information becomes available to us, the DMCA will release it.

Meantime, there are two other Disturbances. Disturbance 2 located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands has become slightly better organized. Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days.

Disturbance 3 formed along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system drifts generally eastward.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL91and provide regular updates as information is released from the Antigua and Barbuda Met Services and the NHC.

ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES TODAY, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN BUT, A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS, IT’S TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT IMPACTS, IF ANY, THE DISTURBANCE (AL91) WILL HAVE ON THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDES MONTSERRAT. RESIDENTS IN MONTSERRAT ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

AT 8 AM, THE DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 917 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1113 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND REMAINS A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN TOWARD THE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE REMAINS AN 80 PERCENT OR HIGH CHANCE OF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS WEEK ONCE THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.

CURRENTLY, THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT; HOWEVER, RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 2 PM, OR EARLIER SHOULD IT BECOME NECESSARY.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL91and provide regular updates as information is released from the Antigua and Barbuda Met Services and the NHC.

According to a Tropical Cyclone Alert Statement Issued by The Antigua And Barbuda Meteorological Services on Monday night, there are no watches or warnings in effect at this time for Montserrat; however, residents here should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center says some gradual development of Tropical Disturbance AL91 (red), located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. AL91 (Red) has a 50% chance of formation in the next 48 hrs and, an 80% chance of development in the next five days.

We are still awaiting Tuesday’s Tropical Alert Statement from the Antigua And Barbuda Meteorological Services, and as soon as the information becomes available to us, the DMCA will release it.

Disturbance 2 located just off the west coast of Africa could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance AL91and provide regular updates as information is released from the Antigua and Barbuda Met Services and the NHC.