Yellow Hill – Thursday, 8 September 2022 – At this time, none of the systems currently poses a threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In the 8AM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance 1 is located almost a thousand miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Additional development of this system is expected, but only a small increase in organization could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today while it moves westward to west northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development.

Disturbance 1 has a 70% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 70% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 2 located in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic emerged off the west coast of Africa this morning. Some
gradual development as the system moves generally west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 2 has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 30% chance of development in the next five days.

The statistical peak of hurricane season is this weekend, on Sept. 10. Roughly two-thirds of all tropical systems in the Atlantic basin form in August or September.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

Yellow Hill – Wednesday, 7 September 2022 – At this time, none of the systems currently poses a threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In the 2PM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance 1 is located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde. Additional development of this system is expected over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over this period while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development of this system.

Disturbance 1 has a 70% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 70% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 2 located near the west African coast is forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next day or so. Some gradual development of the system is expected as the disturbance moves west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 2 has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 30% chance of development in the next five days.

The statistical peak of hurricane season is this weekend, on Sept. 10. Roughly two-thirds of all tropical systems in the Atlantic basin form in August or September.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

Yellow Hill – Wednesday, 7 September 2022 – At this time, none of the systems currently poses a threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In the 8AM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance 1 located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands appears conducive for additional development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over this period while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development of the system.

Disturbance 1 has a 60% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 60% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 2 located near the west African coast is forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter as the system moves west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 2 has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 30% chance of development in the next five days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

Yellow Hill – Tuesday, 6 September 2022 – At this time, none of the systems currently poses a threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In the 8AM Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center states that Tropical Disturbance 1 located in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic is likely to become a tropical depression in a few days while moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are likely to become less conducive for development late this week.

Disturbance 1 has a 40% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 60% chance of development in the next five days.

Tropical Disturbance 2 – located over western Africa is forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic in a day or two. The system appears generally conducive for some slow development thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 2 has a 0% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 20% chance of development in the next five days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

Yellow Hill – Monday, 5 September 2022 – At this time, Tropical Disturbance 1 is currently no threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In today’s Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center says Tropical Disturbance 1 located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands appears generally favourable for additional development. A tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as this system moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

The Disturbance has a 20% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 50% chance of development in the next five days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

Yellow Hill – Monday, 5 September 2022 – At this time, Disturbance 1 is currently no threat to Montserrat, and there are no watches or warnings issued for the island.

In today’s Tropical Outlook, the National Hurricane Center says Tropical Disturbance 1 located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to form in the next next day or so, and environmental conditions appear marginally favourable for additional development. A tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as his system moves generally west northwestward or northwestward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

The Disturbance has a 10% chance of formation in the next two days and, a 40% chance of development in the next five days.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA is encouraging residents and visitors to continue to monitor the DMCA, review their hurricane plans, complete their hurricane preparations, and be prepared.

The Disaster Management Coordination Agency, DMCA will continue to monitor Tropical Disturbance 1, and provide regular updates as information is released from the NHC.

THAT’S ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL STORM EARL ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 6:00 PM ECT, SAT, SEP 3, 2022.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK, TROPICAL STORM EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BVI EARLY TOMORROW SUNDAY, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM EARL IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA OF CONCERN, BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.

AT 5:00 PM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARBUDA, ABOUT 76 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANGUILLA AND ABOUT 111 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE BVI.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (20 KM/H) AND A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (280 KM), MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES) STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 11 PM.

FORECASTER LENARD JOSIAH

ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL STORM EARL ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 11:00 AM, SAT, SEP 3, 2022, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT!

THERE REMAINS SOME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH, TRACK AND SIZE OF TROPICAL STORM EARL. THE STORM-FORCE WINDS, WHICH ARE MAINLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CYCLONE POSES MINOR THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS NEVERTHELESS, YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AT VERY SHORT NOTICE SHOULD THE NEED ARISE.

AT 1100 AM, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. OR ABOUT 91 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BARBUDA AND ABOUT 62 MILES, NORTHEAST OF ANGUILLA. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY, AND NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM), MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES) STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA. NOTWITHSTANDING, ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF EARL’S CENTRE WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING, AT LEAST, SOME OF THE ISLANDS.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM EARL AS IT CONTINUE TO PASS CLOSELY TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 5 PM.

FORECASTER CECIL MATTHEW

Continue to monitor DMCA Facebook, Instagram and Twitter social media sites and our website http://dmca.gov.ms for daily weather updates, public advisories and warnings and information on the wide range of natural and man-made hazards that have the potential to impact Montserrat.

ACCORDING TO A TROPICAL STORM EARL ALERT STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES AT 05:20 AM ECT SAT, SEP 3, 2022, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTSERRAT.

IT STATES THAT THERE REMAINS SOME LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH, TRACK AND SIZE OF TROPICAL STORM EARL.
NOTWITHSTANDING, THE STORM IS IN THE VICINITY AND IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE STORM-FORCE WINDS, WHICH ARE MAINLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CYCLONE POSES AN ELEVATED/MINOR THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS NEVERTHELESS, YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AT VERY SHORT NOTICE SHOULD THE NEED ARISE.

AT 5 AM, TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR 211 MILES EAST OF TORTOLA IN THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTER WHICH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTRE OF EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITH SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PRESENTLY, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE.

STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT MONTSERRAT. NOTWITHSTANDING, ANY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF EARL’S CENTRE WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING, AT LEAST, SOME OF THE ISLANDS.

EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 INCHES, ACROSS PARTS OF THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MINOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDE MONTSERRAT. ADDITIONALLY, SWELLS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR BEACH-GOERS DURING THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT AROUND 11 AM.

FORECASTER LETITIA HUMPHREYS